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Italy have not lost a home game since September 2016, some 24 fixtures ago, and bet365 make them 4/6 (1.67) favourites to extend that run in style with victory here.
A win for Poland would make it their sixth in their last eight competitive away games but they are priced as 17/4 (5.25) outsiders for this one.
The sides drew 0-0 when they met in Gdansk last month despite Italy having the lion’s share of possession and another stalemate can be backed at 27/10 (3.70).
Domenico Criscito, Angelo Ogbonna and Francesco Caputo have all withdrawn due to injury. Vincenzo Grifo netted twice against Estonia in Wednesday’s friendly but is excluded for this one.
Leeds midfielder Mateusz Klich is suspended for Poland whilst Damian Kądzior, Jakub Kaminski, Michal Karbownik and Bartlomiej Dragowski have all withdrawn.
Although they do boast Robert Lewandowski, it is somewhat of a surprise to see Poland top of Group A1 with just two games left to play in this stage of the Nations League.
However, six of their seven points and all five of their goals came against struggling Bosnia-Herzegovina, whilst Brzeczek’s side were lucky to come away with a point the last time these sides met.
Italy’s defence was scarcely troubled in last month’s meeting and they have three clean sheets in their last four games, so will certainly back themselves to keep Lewandowski and Co. at bay on Sunday.
The Azzurri are priced at Evens (2.0) with bet365 to keep a clean sheet and that offers good value ahead of this Nations League clash at Mapei Stadium.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.